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The market is now largely pricing a peak at the current Fed funds target range of 5.25-5.5%, with interest rate cuts to come next year. watch now"At the outer edges of the economy there is obvious stress that is likely to spread in 2024 with rates at these levels. So it's easy to see how bad levered investments could have been made that would be vulnerable to this higher rate regime." Recession risk 'delayed rather than diminished' In a roundtable event on Tuesday, JPMorgan Asset Management strategists echoed this note of caution, claiming that the risk of a U.S. recession was "delayed rather than diminished" as the impact of higher rates feeds through into the economy. "I think the the key conclusion here is that interest rates do still bite, it's just taking longer this time around," she said.
Persons: Victor J, Jim Reid, David Folkerts, Landau, Reid, Folkerts, GSAM, Karen Ward, it's Organizations: New York Stock Exchange, Blue, Bloomberg, Getty, Monetary, Federal Reserve, Deutsche Bank, Global Economics, Research, Silicon Valley Bank, Goldman Sachs Asset Management, European Central Bank, Fed, ECB, JPMorgan, Management Locations: New York, Washington, U.S, Canada, Brazil, Chile, Hungary, Mexico, Peru, Poland
Share Share Article via Facebook Share Article via Twitter Share Article via LinkedIn Share Article via EmailModerately higher persistent inflation is good for investors, says JPMorgan's Karen WardKaren Ward, Chief Market Strategist for EMEA at JPMorgan Asset Management, joins 'Squawk Box' to preview key inflation data this week, and the potential impact on markets.
LONDON, Dec 15 (Reuters) - The Bank of England on Thursday raised interest rates by a widely expected 50 basis points (bps) to 3.50%, in its ninth straight increase - and its eighth this year. UK rates began rising in December 2021, making the BoE the first of the world's major central banks to kick off a monetary policy-tightening cycle. MONEY MARKETS: Interest rate swaps showed investors expected rates to peak at 4.46% by next August, compared with an anticipated terminal rate of 4.53% just before the decision. Their own numbers have been pointing to a recession for a little while, and they've still materially hiked interest rates. EDWARD HUTCHINGS, HEAD OF RATES, AVIVA INVESTORS, LONDON:"The Bank of England duly delivered on financial markets expectations of a 0.50% hike.
But Goldman Sachs Asset Management says it could come back in 2023, going by past patterns. Not so fast, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management. Furthermore, history shows the 60/40 portfolio tends to deliver strong returns in the years immediately following a period of negative returns, Goldman Sachs Asset Management said in its note. "Performance for an illustrative traditional 60/40 portfolio has been challenged in 2022 amid surges in interest rates, recession risk, and broader market uncertainty," it said. The outlook for the 60/40 portfolio has also brightened due to increased bond yields, according to Goldman Sachs Asset Management.
JP Morgan Asset Management sees a better 2023 for stocks, even as big Wall Street banks warn of sharp falls. "The worst of the market volatility is behind us and both stocks and bonds look increasingly attractive," JP Morgan Asset said. More interest-rate rises look limited, bringing some cheer for markets in 2023, top asset manager Janus Henderson agreed. Here's a selection of commentary and predictions from the two asset managers on 2023 investment prospects. JP Morgan Asset Management"Our base case sees a moderate recession in most major developed economies in 2023.
UK finance minister Hunt sets up expert council to advise him
  + stars: | 2022-10-17 | by ( ) www.reuters.com   time to read: +1 min
LONDON, Oct 17 (Reuters) - Britain's new finance minister Jeremy Hunt said on Monday he was forming an Economic Advisory Council to provide him with "independent expert advice" as he tries to lead the economy out of a crisis of confidence among investors. Hunt said the council would comprise Rupert Harrison, who was a top aide to former finance minister George Osborne, Gertjan Vlieghe and Sushil Wadhwani, who both served on the Bank of England's Monetary Policy Committee, and Karen Ward, chief market strategist for EMEA at J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Terms of reference published online said the council would have no policy or decision-making powers, members would be chosen and removed by Hunt, and the board's membership and objectives would be subject to a review after six months. "The Council will act as a consultative forum for the government to be advised on UK and international economics and financial markets," the document said. Register now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com RegisterReporting by Sachin Ravikumar and William James Writing by William Schomberg, editing by William James and Paul SandleOur Standards: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
"It is really not the right time to experiment with fiscal policy," AXA chief economist Gilles Moec said about the UK's moves, assessing that Monday's U-turn may have appeased "the bond vigilantes for now". The term, bond vigilantes, refers to debt investors imposing fiscal discipline on profligate governments by forcing their borrowing costs higher. Ed Yardeni, who coined the bond vigilantes term in the early 1980s, penned a blog post saying "They're Baaaack!" Even U.S. President Joe Biden was speaking the bond vigilante's language at the weekend, noting he wasn't the only one that thought the UK plan was a "mistake". "This is probably the biggest example in practice of the bond vigilantes activity," said Antonio Cavarero, head of investments at Generali Insurance Asset Management.
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